New Zealand, an inconvenient success story

In 2009, 20% of New Zealanders smoked daily, rising to more than 40% for Māori. Slow progress prompted New Zealand’s tobacco control sector to publish a bold vision for a smokefree nation. The vision called for a suite of mainstream actions to curb tobacco uptake and increase quitting. It directly influenced the national smokefree 2025 goal. It was also unique in that nicotine and harm reduction were explicit parts of the plan, with a consensus to manage negative misconceptions about nicotine and support ‘effective and safe ways to manage nicotine addiction’, such as the sale and promotion of e-cigarettes as viable alternatives to smoking.

The strategy has been successful. Daily smoking reached 6.8% in 2025. Under-18 smoking has almost been eliminated, and smoking rates for Māori have reached 14%. Almost half of the reductions occurred since 2018, when New Zealand experienced some of the fastest drops in smoking globally, linked to widespread switching to vapes. Yet despite world-leading drops in smoking and the almost complete elimination of youth uptake, why are so many branding New Zealand as a failure? What changed, and is it justified?