Is this what success looks like? 50 years of smoking in a society where cigarettes have competed with snus and, more recently, nicotine pouches

In the 1970s, 40 per cent of the Norwegian adult population smoked daily. By 2025, the figure had decreased to 7 per cent, making it one of the lowest rates in Europe. Among young adults, the decline was even more pronounced, from around 40 per cent to less than 2 per cent.

It seems reasonable to attribute this decline to Norway’s long-standing, strict tobacco control policies. However, part of the story might also be that, unlike in the US and most other European countries, cigarettes in Norway have long competed with snus, a moist oral tobacco product. The notable decline in smoking over recent decades has been accompanied by a significant rise in the use of snus, with 16 per cent of the general population and 23 per cent of young adults using snus daily. Furthermore, regardless of age, gender, or education, the largest reductions in smoking have occurred in groups where snus use has increased most.

This notable change has not resulted from proactive government policies. Although daily smoking, the greatest public health threat in late modernity, is at a historic low, nobody is celebrating. Instead, the focus has shifted from Norway being a smoke-free society to a tobacco-free society, and now to a nicotine-free society. Vaping is considered the main concern, despite its low prevalence of use. Is this as good as it gets? Is snus being unfairly credited for the decline in smoking? What can be learned from a country where cigarettes have competed with another tobacco product for decades?